Bank of England holds base rate at 5.25% - when will it come down?

The Bank of England has voted to keep the base rate at 5.25% in November.

It's the second time in a row that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee opted to keep the base rate unchanged. Prior to this, there had been almost two years of consecutive hikes.

Here, Which? explains what the steadying of the base rate means for your personal finances, and what could happen in the future.

November's base rate decision

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has voted by a majority of 6-3 to keep the base rate at 5.25%.

The decision was widely expected across the money market, as the Bank continues its efforts to rein in inflation, which currently stands at 6.7%.

Inflation has fallen from its peak in recent months, however, it is still more than three times higher than the target of 2%.

The Bank has therefore decided to keep interest rates steady - meaning it remains expensive for people to borrow money. In making borrowing more costly, the Bank hopes people will spend less and therefore price rises will calm.

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When will the base rate fall?

If inflation continues to cool, the base rate could fall - yet it doesn't look likely anytime soon. The Bank's governor, Andrew Bailey, warns it is 'much too early' to think about cutting rates. 

In releasing its monetary report, the Bank said: 'Inflation is still too high. We will be watching closely to see if further increases in interest rates are needed.

'And we will keep interest rates high enough for long enough to get inflation back to the 2% target.' 

The Bank, which says it will 'not be complacent', envisages that the 2% target will be reached by the end of 2025, with inflation set to soon dip below 5%.

With these forecasts, and the Bank's unwavering stance on battling inflation, it's likely the base rate will remain the same going into the new year.

The base rate will next be reviewed on Thursday 14 December.

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How does the base rate freeze impact my mortgage?

For mortgage holders on a variable deal linked to the base rate, a freeze is good news as their mortgage bill will remain the same.

Those on fixed-rate mortgages about to come to an end might also breathe a sigh of relief that the rate has remained steady with the hope that mortgage rates continue their downward trend before they have to remortgage.

Since the last base rate decision on 21 September, mortgage rates have slightly dipped.

In September the average two-year fix was 6.57%, and the average five-year fix was 6.08%. Now they stand at 6.3% and 5.87%, respectively.  

Taking that into account, we could therefore see further small decreases in the coming weeks - but there won't be any significant changes.

David Hollingworth, Associate Director at broker firm L&C Mortgages, said: 'Mortgage rates have been improving slowly but surely and today’s decision should only help to ensure that trend continues for now.'

The graph shows the relationship between base rate changes and mortgage rates for two and five-year fixes, using data from Moneyfacts.

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What if I can't afford my mortgage?

'Households will still struggle'

Commenting on today's decision, Sam Richardson, deputy editor of Which? Money, said: "The base rate remaining unchanged will provide reassurance to those looking to move or remortgage, but won't help households already struggling with mortgage repayments. 

'With nearly half a million homeowners coming off fixed-term deals over the Christmas period, and still likely to see their monthly payments rocket, banks must be ready to respond with tailored support.'

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What does the base rate freeze mean for savings?

In theory, the base rate freeze should see interest rates on savings accounts remain steady. However, providers could start to factor in potential falls in the future and start lowering rates.

Excluding accounts with limited withdrawals or other restrictions, the best instant-access savings rate is currently 5.2% AER, offered by Beehive Money.

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source https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/bank-of-england-holds-base-rate-at-5.25-when-will-it-come-down-aRxg09d89P4l
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