So what's the outlook for 2024?
Mortgage rates are likely to steal the headlines, and with the Renters Reform Bill, leasehold changes and the very real possibility of a general election looming too, things will be anything but dull.
Here, we make our predictions for house prices, mortgages and the property market in 2024.
What will happen to house prices?
1. House prices may drop – but no need to panic
Fears of a house price crash in 2023 didn't come to pass, with average prices dropping by around 1%-2%.
This is the latest example of how the property market tends to remain robust against most economic challenges.
In a recent poll conducted by Finder, 55% of property and economic experts forecasted that house prices would drop by between 5% and 7.5% by autumn 2024.
Rightmove (-1%) and Halifax (-2% to -4%) have predicted smaller reductions, but HSBC says it 'no longer sees any further falls'.
The property market is very localised, so the truth is that any of these outcomes could happen in your area.
But, while falling house prices might make for dramatic headlines, it's important to put these predictions in context.
Land Registry data shows that even a drop of 7.5% in the UK average house price would only take it back to where it was two years ago, in January 2022.
Find out more:
What will happen to mortgages?
2. Mortgage rates will fall slowly
Mortgage rates skyrocketed after the government's ill-fated Autumn Statement in late 2022, and the impact is still being felt.
Average rates have now dropped back to below 6% – a small crumb of comfort for borrowers after a difficult year.
Unfortunately, though, the cost of borrowing is likely to drop much more slowly than it rose.
Find out more:3. More remortgaging pain for homeowners
An estimated 1.5 million households will come to the end of their fixed terms in 2024, according to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
The cheapest 60% LTV two-year deal is currently priced at around 4.7%, compared with 1.1% two years ago.
Unfortunately, these increases are unavoidable – even for the savviest homeowners.
Find out more:4. First-time buyers will borrow for longer
FCA data shows the number of people taking out mortgage terms lasting 35 years or longer more than doubled between 2018 and 2022 and, with affordability squeezed, this trend is likely to continue.
40-year 'marathon' mortgages have theoretically been on the market for a long time, but very few deals were actually granted with these maximum terms.
What will happen for home buyers and sellers?
5. It will still be a buyers' market, but sales will rise
The property market has slowed recently, with sales down 17% year-on-year and properties now taking much longer to go under offer.
Rightmove says it expects a rise in the number of homes coming on to the market in 2024, and Halifax predicts a 'partial recovery' in sale volumes.
And if, as is speculated, the base rate begins to drop in the second half of the year, this could result in more mortgage applications and higher sales numbers.
6. First-time buyer schemes and incentives will return
The closure of the Help to Buy scheme in March was met with a mixed reaction, but it has left a big hole in the market.
Overall, 328,000 first-time buyers used Help to Buy to get on the property ladder between 2013 and 2023.
With an election possibly on the horizon, it wouldn't be a surprise if a crowd-pleasing first-time buyer scheme appeared in 2024.
Find out more:7. Somebody will suggest a stamp duty cut
Whenever a Budget or Autumn Statement comes around, stamp duty is always one of the most-discussed topics – industry experts and politicians throw their weight behind the tax being reduced or abolished entirely.
In the past six years, we've seen surcharges introduced on additional properties, relief for first-time buyers, and a tax 'holiday' for homebuyers during the pandemic.
The latest rumblings are around stamp dut.y for older people who want to downsize.
Those in favour say a cut would free up bigger homes for families progressing up the ladder, while those against say the biggest barrier to downsizing isn't stamp duty, but rather a lack of desirable smaller properties for older people to move to.
Find out more:8. We'll finally see leasehold reforms
The good news is that the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Bill has finally started its progression through Parliament.
The first reforms – which include banning the sale of almost all leasehold houses, introducing longer lease terms and making it cheaper to extend leases – should come into force in 2024. A consultation on capping existing ground rents is ongoing.
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What will happen for landlords and tenants?
9. Rents will continue to rise
The cost of renting soared in 2023. Data from the estate agency Hamptons shows that monthly rents were 10.2% higher in November 2023 than in November 2022.
Unfortunately for struggling tenants, rents may be set to rise further. The agent Chestertons and property consultancy JLL are both forecasting a 5% rise in 2024.
10. The Renters Reform Bill will come into force
The long-awaited Renters Reform Bill is making its way through parliament, with hopes it could come into force by the end of 2024.
However, measures on regulating rent increases, the right to keep pets, and a new ombudsman to resolve disputes are still being brought forward.
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