The budget is a series of recommmendations to stay on what is termed the Balanced Pathway. It is designed to have an impact for targets in the years 2038-2042. Even though this is still 13 years away, the changes required to get there are already being gradually implemented.
The Carbon Budget sets out recommendations, but the government will need to decide how far it is willing to go in terms of taking the advice to make sure that its targets are achieved.
Previous carbon budgets have focused heavily on decarbonising the energy sector and ensuring our energy supply comes from largely renewable sources. Because much of this work has already been set in motion, the new budget has shifted its focus to things that will rely more on consumers making low carbon choices in areas such as driving, flying and their diet.
Around a third of the emissions cuts set out by the latest recommendations would come from household actions.
The biggest projected cuts will come from the take up of electric vehicles (42% of emissions reduction by households in 2040) and low carbon heating systems (30% of emissions reductions). Eating less meat and dairy and reducing air travel each lead to a further 6% cut.
Make changes for the planet and your pocket.Heat pumps
The Climate Change Committee has modelled that there are significant savings for consumers in the long term by following its recommendations on heating. It predicts a £700 annual saving on heating bills by 2050. In the intervening years the savings will be smaller because of the costs of installing a heat pump and improving your home's energy efficiency. It therefore predicts savings of between £100 to £150 a year between 2025 to 2050.
To stay on the Balanced Pathway, the Carbon Budget recommends that by 2040 around half of UK homes should be heated by heat pumps. This is a big increase from around 1% in 2023.
The committee says that household savings will come from the increased efficiency that heat pumps offer – they are three to four times more efficient than gas heating. But the savings will only be achiveable if the government lowers electricity prices through removing policy costs.
And people will also need support with the one-off upfront costs of installing a heat pump.
To meet the cuts, the government will also need to revive the previous policy that all new and replaced heating systems will be low carbon after 2035 in order to achieve this goal - currently there are exemptions for some households.
Electric cars
A typical household should save around £550 a year between 2025 and 2050 as a result of the lower costs of powering electric cars compared to petrol.
If you are able to charge your car at home, energy costs are already three times lower than petrol cars per mile.
By 2040, EVs will need to make up 75% of the cars and vans and nearly two thirds on HGVs on the road by 2040 to stay on the Balanced Pathway. In 2023 only 2.8% of the cars and 1.4% of vans were electric.
The Climate Change Committee sees this as achievable by improving teh EV charge point infrastructure so people can have charge points in their homes or businesses.
It also anticipates that the falling cost of batteries will mean that electric cars will be the same price as comparable petrol and diesel cars between 2026 and 2028.
Dino Buratti, Which? cars expert says, 'there is currently only one EV that's reached price parity with its petrol equivalent - the Vauxhall Frontera. But we do expect there will be more electric cars that achieve this over the next few years.
'The UK's cheapest new electric car is the Dacia Spring, which starts from £14,995. But we've seen that many electric cars can be more expensive than petrol and diesel cars on average, with the average small electric SUV costing around £8,000 more on average when compared to a petrol or diesel equivalent.'
The committee also says there needs to be incentives to enourage people to use public transport, cycling and walking. Around 7% of demand for cars needs to be shifted to this.
Thinking of buying an EV? ReadDiet change: reducing meat and dairy
The overall aim is to cut 25% of all meat (30% of red meat) and cut dairy consumption by 20% compared to 2019 consumption levels. The dual aim of this is to reduce agricultural emissions (agriculature is the fourth highest-emitting sector in the UK economy) and allow agricultural land to be freed up for rewilding and reforesting. UK agriculture accounts for 11% of all greenhouse gas emissions and, of this, livestock makes up 63% of this.
According to charity The Food Foundation, this doesn't have to mean huge changes to our diets. A 35% reduction in meat consumption equates daily to one less rasher of bacon to two less chicken nuggets.
It could also be as simple as plant-based alternatives replacing some of the meat in pre-prepared meals such as lentils being added to mince in a lasagne, for example.
The Climate Change Committee also comments that this reduction could have health benefits, especially if meat is replaced with plant whole foods such as legumes and pulses, though there is still a benefit when processed meats are replaced with processed plant-based alternatives.
The Climate Change Committee doesn't see this change as having big implications for household budgets but thinks there will be slight reductions in food costs as alternative proteins to meat become more established.
Read more about the health and environmental credentials of some popularFlying
There's not actually a plan to reduce the amount of flying the UK does but to manage increased demand so that it grows more slowly than it would without intervention. Simultaneously the committee expects that the amount of sustainable aviation fuel will be rising until it reaches 17% of aviation fuel demand by 2040. This will lead to an overall reductions in emissions.
Jo Rhodes, Which? travel expert says: ' SAF is currently very expensive to produce and limited in supply so as things stand it currently fuels a tiny percentage of flights. It’s hard to see how the aviation industry will be able to increase its use of SAF at the sheer scale needed to meet carbon reduction targets.'
Reducing the demand for flights is likely to be achieved through increasing costs. Proposals include an increase in air passenger duty or the introduction of a frequent flyer levy.
It's modelled that the price of a return ticket to Alicante, Spain, could go up by £150 and a round-trip to New York could be £300 more expensive by 2050, though that would be a relatively small proportion of the expected increase in household incomes by then.
The Climate Change Committee asked a panel of people about all the proposed cuts and the panel felt strongly that families should be able to fly abroadfor a holiday once a year and shouldn't be penalised for that.
The committee wants to see policy that limits airport expansion but currently the Government is considering expansion plans for Heathrow, Gatwick and Luton.
Want to travel more sustainably? Our guide onSue Davies, Which? head of consumer rights and food policy, said: “We know lots of people want to reduce their impact on the environment but our research shows that they are held back by high costs, complex choices and uncertainty, especially when it comes to important changes such as buying a heat pump, switching to an electric car, or choosing a more sustainable diet.
“To make the transition to net zero work for the majority, people need to know the changes they make will lead to cheaper energy and fuel, warmer homes, better journeys and healthier meals.“The Government and businesses can do this by making green choices more affordable overall and by providing the right information and incentives, so that people have the confidence to switch.”
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